Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website

More SPC info on this site: 

SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Jan 11 2026 5:59 pm


 

Day 1

D4Wednesday Jan 14 2026 - Thursday Jan 15 2026 D7Saturday Jan 17 2026 - Sunday Jan 18 2026
D5Thursday Jan 15 2026 - Friday Jan 16 2026 D8Sunday Jan 18 2026 - Monday Jan 19 2026
D6Friday Jan 16 2026 - Saturday Jan 17 2026 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com